Housing supply

Mirvac: restarting immigration to overwhelm housing supply

While all the usual suspects continue to claim that rigid planning and lack of land release are responsible for Australia’s housing shortage, Mirvac CEO Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz has essentially admitted that the shortage has been caused by excessive levels of immigration, which will worsen as the Greater Australia strategy is restarted:

“We are in a real national affordability crisis. This will have an effect on the next generation unless we resolve it quickly”…

“Supply is the problem. We’re just not building enough houses to keep up with the population…

“Apartment supply, for example, on the east coast of Australia in 2023 will be only 45% of what it was in 2018, but at the same time we are activating migration. This only puts more and more upward pressure on prices. This is not good for the young people of this country.

Brickworks CEO Lindsay Patridge also recently admitted that any “shortage of supply” will be caused by excessive immigration:

Business Writer Ross Greenwood:

“There has to be a demand to build houses… After the housing boom that Australia enjoyed, there is now a shortage of houses, especially if immigration increases. But curiously, to build these houses, immigration must increase.

“Now I’ve spoken to Lindsay Patridge, who is the managing director of Brickworks – Australia’s biggest brick maker – and he says the key to all of this is immigration.”

Lindsay Patridge, CEO of Brickworks:

“The biggest problem there is that you have to have a pretty positive idea of ​​where the immigration is going. Although there is no immigration, this will eventually reduce the demand considerably. 100,000 people need about 42,000 to 45,000 houses to live in, and we are missing 2 or 300,000 people. We have to relaunch immigration if we want to see these kinds of figures achieved”.

So if we want to ensure that more new housing is available for incumbent Australians, all we need to do is have a weaker immigration policy. Thanks for confirming it.

Take a look at the following table. Does it look like Australia hasn’t built enough houses?

Housing construction in Australia has exploded over the past decade.

The truth is that any housing shortage was/is caused by one thing only: Australia’s massive immigration policy:

Net migration from Australia overseas

Back to a “Greater Australia”.

Net Overseas Migration (NOM) from Australia has increased from an average of 90,500 between 1991 and 2004 to an average of 219,000 between 2005 and 2019, representing an average annual increase in immigration of 140 %.

The Intergenerational Report (IGR) projects that Australia’s NOM will average 235,000 people per year over the next 40 years, increasing Australia’s population by 13.1 million (50%).

Stop the gaslight. Excessive levels of immigration are to blame for Australia’s alleged housing shortage, not a building slump (which has actually increased dramatically over the past decade – see the first chart above ).

Restarting mass immigration at the levels projected in the GRI will obviously render the supply problem intractable.

Policy makers and commentators must stop the charade. If they want to solve Australia’s housing supply “problem”, they should abandon Greater Australia’s massive immigration policy, which the overwhelming majority of Australians do not support anyway.

Unconventional economist
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