Housing supply

Prices rise as the country’s housing supply tightens

According to a new report from Redfin, the seasonally adjusted number of homes for sale fell 18% year-over-year in November to an all-time low. This lack of home inventory in the country pushed the median sale price up 15% to $383,100.

November marked the 16th straight month of double-digit price increases, and so far in December there’s been no sign of the typical seasonal slowdown in price growth that usually accompanies the fourth quarter close. Sales of closed homes and new listings of homes for sale both fell from the previous year, by 6% and 9% respectively, and the average home sold 0.6% more than the price. catalog.

“I wish I had better news for homebuyers this holiday season, but in many ways the housing market is tougher than ever,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “At least buyers are benefiting from low mortgage rates. But by next year, inflation could spread to more consumer goods. So even though our forecast for the new year includes more listings and slower growth in house prices, buyers may feel so squeezed by other expenses that they have to cut their housing budgets.

Median selling prices rose from a year earlier in the 85 largest metropolitan areas, according to Redfin.

The smallest increases in median sale prices were observed in:

  • Baltimore
  • Bridgeport, Connecticut
  • Newark, New Jersey

The largest increases in median selling prices were seen in:

  • Austin, TX (+31%)
  • Phoenix (+27%)
  • North Port, Florida (+27%)

Seasonally adjusted home sales in November were down 6% from a year earlier, a slightly less steep decline than the previous month. Home sales fell in 49 of the 85 largest metropolitan areas tracked by Redfin.

The largest declines in sales were seen in:

  • Nassau County, NY (-21%)
  • Bridgeport, Connecticut (-19%)
  • McAllen, TX (-17%)

The biggest gains were in places where sales were still somewhat depressed:

  • Honolulu, Hawaii (+31%)
  • San Francisco (+13%)
  • Tulsa, Oklahoma (11%)

Seasonally adjusted active listings — the number of all homes that were for sale at any time during the month — hit an all-time low in November, falling 18% year-over-year.

Only four of the 85 largest metros tracked by Redfin showed a year-over-year increase in the number of seasonally-adjusted active listings of homes for sale, such as:

  • Detroit (+7%)
  • Milwaukee (+4%)
  • Austin, TX (+3%)
  • Tacoma, Washington (+2%)

The largest year-over-year declines in active housing supply in November occurred:

  • Baton Rouge, Louisiana (-51%)
  • Salt Lake City (-50%)
  • Sacramento, CA (-48%)

Seasonally adjusted new listings of homes for sale fell 9% in November from a year earlier, matching the drop seen in October. New listings fell a year ago in 57 of the 85 largest metropolitan areas.

The biggest decreases concern:

  • Baton Rouge, Louisiana (-55%)
  • Salt Lake City (-55%)
  • Allentown, Pennsylvania (-52%)

New registrations increased the most from a year ago:

  • Detroit (+20%)
  • Pittsburgh (+11%)
  • Indianapolis (+9%)

The housing market became less competitive in November than it had been in previous months as homes spent longer on the market and were less likely to sell above listed price. The typical home sold in November was under contract in 22 days, nearly a week faster than a year earlier, when homes sold in a median of 28 days, but up seven days from the low record 15 days in June.

In November, 44% of homes sold above list price, down 12 percentage points from June’s record, but up 9 percentage points from a year earlier. The average sell-to-list price ratio also dipped slightly in November to 100.6%, down from a record high of 102.6% in June, but up from 99. .5% a year earlier.

To read the full report, including graphs and additional metro-level highlights, click here.